“What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?”
Pro Tour Gatecrash starts today, and I already feel like I won the biggest coin flip just getting to be here.
Awesome.
Gatecrash isn't necessarily the set that is going to turn Magic upside down, but from having spent the last week and a half testing, it has helped breathe new life into the format. Above all, it's fun.
To start with, Standard has a lot of really good games. It's hard to get a massive advantage on deck—which has downsides to be sure—but the quality of the games is incredible. I have a feeling this is going to be one of the most fun and interesting Pro Tours to watch in a while.
Next: the Draft format. It's no Innistrad, and it's disappointing that some of the "cool things" to do are too underpowered to really be competitive. However, the format has some depth and is fun and skill-testing. It presents a bunch of new puzzles to solve. I really enjoy it and am super-pumped to actually be well-prepared and comfortable with a Limited format. I'm thankful to have a lot of really great practice and discussions with stone masters.
Back to Standard, however. I'd love to spoil what I'm playing, but sadly, this article is posted a full nine hours before the Pro Tour starts, so that article will have to come Monday. Still, let's take a look at the state of Standard, heading into the Pro Tour.
To begin with, here are the results from last weekend's SCG Open in Edison:
| Archetypes | % of Metagame |
|---|---|
| Jund | 23.40% |
| Naya | 21.30% |
| R/G Aggro | 12.80% |
| Mono Red | 12.80% |
| Esper Control | 10.60% |
| W/G/B | 8.50% |
| Naya Humans | 6.40% |
| Mono-White Humans | 4.30% |
As you can see, we are starting to see a metagame forming. Jund was the most popular week 1, and continued here. That is a likely possibility for this weekend at the Pro Tour in Montreal and the SCG Open in Cincinnati. Naya seems to be turning into more and more of a Jund deck itself. Even Rakdos's Return is showing up more in the somewhat unfortunately named Naya archetype. W/G/B is also just another flavor of Jund. This is a midrange format, and Jund-like Thragtusk decks are likely to occupy as much as 35-40% of the field.
Why?
Why are these decks so popular?
Let's get back to this in a moment. First, let's merge that data with the data from the week before to get an idea of the winner's circle metagame and where it's going. As always, thanks to Hall of Famer Frank Karsten who pioneered this system of metagame predicting by weighing the numbers by finish to give us an idea of what we actually have to beat to win the tournament.
| Archetypes | Week 1 Meta | Week 2 Meta | Expected Meta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jund | 19.00% | 23.40% | 21.20% |
| Big Naya | 7.90% | 21.30% | 14.60% |
| Mono Red/Boros | 9.50% | 12.80% | 11.20% |
| Naya Humans | 12.70% | 6.40% | 9.60% |
| Esper Control | 4.70% | 10.60% | 7.70% |
| R/G Aggro | 1.60% | 12.80% | 7.20% |
| Human Reanimator | 11.10% | 0.00% | 5.60% |
| U/W/R Flash | 7.90% | 0.00% | 4.00% |
| Junk Midrange | 0.00% | 8.50% | 4.30% |
| W/g Humans | 1.60% | 4.30% | 3.00% |
| Misc. | 24.00% | 0.00% | 12.00% |
Here, we see the biggest gainer of the week was Big Naya. Interesting, isn't it, that Big Naya has a similar niche in the meta to Jund, yet hasn't impacted Jund's performance. The other big gainer was red aggro, between actual Mono Red, Boros, and Gruul. That is a lot of different breeds of red aggro, and a lot of people seem to have gotten the message that Burning-Tree Emissary is secretly one of the five best cards in the set. If you can't compete with fast red aggro, you are in for a short tournament...
Over 70% red decks?
Under 20% blue decks?
No wonder Volcanic Strength maindeck is everywhere!
Now, I suspect there will be a marked increase in blue decks this weekend, as Pro Tour players are slightly more inclined to play blue decks than this paltry showing by the Open Series suggests. Will that primarily be in the form of Esper (the emerging Control deck of choice), U/W/x Flash (an archetype that seems to have been forgotten by everyone—a little too easily, if you ask me), or some new third blue deck?
From the buzz in the air, it sounds like there is a reckoning coming...
Up first, the default “best deck,” Jund:
Creatures (13)
Planeswalkers (4)
Lands (25)
Spells (18)
What is most interesting about this list is the complete lack of Gatecrash cards... including Stomping Ground! Apparently a misunderstanding resulted in a little oversight, but Stomping Ground really should go straight in. As for other Jund cards, Gatecrash doesn't have a ton, but new cards entering into the format should change what cards we want to play.
Does Stomping Ground change anything by itself? What about Boros Reckoner? The increase in threatening one-drops? Domri Rade? Cartel Aristocrat? Burning-Tree Emissary?
While most of Jund's matchups are close-ish, an awful lot of super fun games this weekend involved a Jund deck. If there has to be a most popular deck, this is a good one for that job. There are plenty of blowouts here and there, and sometimes a quick Olivia Voldaren or Huntmaster of the Fells or Liliana of the Veil ends up being game. On the whole, however, a lot of Jund games turn out pretty sweet. I just wish we got to draw more cards when playing it. Either way, this is a crucial deck to test against for this weekend (with a Stomping Ground).
The Big Naya archetype is a relatively broad one and basically encompasses everything bigger than an actual Naya Humans deck. The third-place finisher from Edison gives us an example of the fast side.
Creatures (28)
- 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
- 4 Boros Reckoner
- 4 Burning-Tree Emissary
- 4 Flinthoof Boar
- 4 Loxodon Smiter
- 4 Restoration Angel
- 4 Thragtusk
Lands (24)
Spells (9)
- 2 Zealous Conscripts
- 2 Rest in Peace
- 3 Boros Charm
- 2 Ray of Revelation
- 2 Domri Rade
- 4 Pillar of Flame
Sideboard
Frankly, this is a strange place for Burning-Tree Emissary. Don't get me wrong, the card is extremely strong, but with almost no one-drops (like Champion of the Parish or Experiment One) and very few two-drops, Burning-Tree Emissary seems shockingly out of place. He is more for decks that want fast Affinity-like starts. Thragtusk/Restoration Angel is a bit bigger of a plan.
The more interesting element of this list is the use of Volcanic Strength maindeck. With 70% of the field playing red, this is a powerful way to hit the forward where it isn't expecting. It isn't just the mountainwalk, either. A lot of people are relying on Pillar of Flame or Searing Spear, so an extra two toughness is going to make the threat extremely difficult to beat.
Ranger's Guile also plays into that same game plan. If you have created an Eldrazi (of sorts), protecting it for one mana is serious business. Ranger's Guile is a slightly strange choice for a format that has so many creature-based decks, but it is still a combat trick that can let you make good exchanges.
Boros Charm out of the board is a solid anti-sweeper card that also gives us a little reach. No surprise there.
Domri Rade probably goes in against the same people, but he also has applications against anyone attrition-based (like Jund). Domri Rade is still not fully appreciated and will likely turn out to be one of the best cards in the set. Having played with the card a lot over the past week and a half, he definitely has the Jace Beleren thing going on. It's hard to evaluate the value of all the cards he's drawing you, and in addition his ultimate is much more threatening than Beleren's.
Creatures (24)
- 3 Arbor Elf
- 4 Avacyn's Pilgrim
- 4 Huntmaster of the Fells
- 4 Loxodon Smiter
- 4 Restoration Angel
- 4 Thragtusk
- 1 Aurelia, the Warleader
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (24)
Spells (10)
Here we have the other end of the Naya spectrum. I suppose a Sphinx's Revelation version might be even slightly bigger, but you get the idea. This is mostly a Jund deck, with Restoration Angel instead of Olivia and Loxodon Smiter instead of Liliana (plus less removal). Personally, I think this makes it a worse Jund, but there is some value to playing a different set of cards than your opponents are prepared for. That said, these are not exactly cards that people will be surprised to see.
Once again, we see a disappointing lack of Gatecrash cards. Without question, the subtle strength of Gatecrash is hurting its early reception in the tournament scene. Additionally, while I think the set is better than what is reflected here, it isn't the best Constructed set to come out lately. This is only week two, but I think the real test will be the Pro Tour weekend. Hopefully there are enough new twists and turns to validate the set as a good one for Constructed.
Over the past two weeks, we have been talking about Mono Red's rise to power. This is not a new phenomenon and is largely a function of how obvious red's good cards are in Gatecrash. Boros Charm suggests a white splash; Ghor-Clan Rampager suggests a light green splash; and Burning-Tree Emissary and Boros Reckoner are everywhere. Here are two versions:
Creatures (27)
- 4 Ash Zealot
- 4 Boros Reckoner
- 4 Hellrider
- 3 Lightning Mauler
- 1 Pyreheart Wolf
- 4 Rakdos Cackler
- 1 Stonewright
- 4 Stromkirk Noble
- 2 Zealous Conscripts
Lands (24)
Spells (9)
- 4 Reckless Waif
- 3 Volcanic Strength
- 2 Boros Charm
- 2 Skullcrack
- 3 Mizzium Mortars
- 1 Pillar of Flame
Sideboard
Creatures (28)
- 4 Ash Zealot
- 4 Boros Reckoner
- 4 Burning-Tree Emissary
- 4 Flinthoof Boar
- 4 Hellrider
- 4 Rakdos Cackler
- 4 Stromkirk Noble
Lands (20)
Spells (12)
- 4 Reckless Waif
- 4 Volcanic Strength
- 4 Flames of the Firebrand
- 3 Traitorous Blood
Sideboard
Not playing four Burning-Tree Emissary is crazy in a deck like this, as it is your Frogmite, leading to some unbelievably explosive starts. I do think some work needs to be done on the manabases. Phil, for instance, is playing a Saito version but with just 20 land and a curve that goes up to four—ambitious to say the least.
Both of these versions play four Boros Reckoners and want to win the mirrors. Volcanic Strength continues this theme. What's going to be very interesting is what these decks do against opposing Reckoners, as that card is absolutely devastating to red's strategy.
Rancor is pretty ambitious here, and while Burning-Tree Emissary can help cast it (once), the card's impact isn't as high as one might guess. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing some Lightning Mauler in here, as it combos incredibly well with Burning-Tree Emissary and is a great way to curve into Boros Reckoner.
As for the Boros deck, once you are only playing two Boros Charms, are you even getting that much bang for your buck? Is this the best splash available?
Creatures (31)
- 4 Boros Elite
- 4 Burning-Tree Emissary
- 4 Champion of the Parish
- 3 Experiment One
- 2 Frontline Medic
- 3 Hellrider
- 4 Lightning Mauler
- 4 Mayor of Avabruck
- 3 Silverblade Paladin
Lands (23)
Spells (6)
Now this is a serious Burning-Tree Shaman deck! Champion of the Parish, Boros Elite, or Experiment One into Burning-Tree Emissary plus Mauler or Mayor has the potential to be pretty unbeatable for a lot of opponents. This deck is explosive and powerful, but it is also vulnerable to opponents who can kill two creatures early and then put down a medium-sized body, like Restoration Angel. Additionally, Supreme Verdict can be devastating, as long as it's not the first card to the party. Boros Charm helps but, as always, isn't trivial to leave open mana for.
As a note, Bonds of Faith is an amusing answer to Boros Reckoner that doubles as a buff for our guys. This is cute—and not terrible—but it does play badly against Restoration Angel.
Finally, we come to the token control deck. While control appears to be more popular than it was for the later part of last season, it is still a relatively small percentage of the field. We started with Bant and Esper, but it appears that Bant has mostly fallen by the wayside. Is Esper the new king of control, or will a challenger emerge?
Creatures (5)
Planeswalkers (2)
Lands (27)
Spells (26)
I like what's going on here. To begin with, Chris uses fewer planeswalkers than most. The format is so fast, we have to speed up to match it.
Blind Obedience gives him much needed defense against haste and burn. With 70%+ of the field playing red, this is a powerful option. I love Blind Obedience (at least so far), but I am not sure about three maindeck copies. It is a little dubious against Jund-like decks, though it is back-breaking against red aggro. The issue is, if they don't play haste, the card is a glorified Crystal Rod, since the life loss is almost worthless when your plan is to mill people out. Still, the card is just powerful, and with three of them in the deck, you can eventually get out two and realistically extort people to death.
Two Devour Flesh and two Ultimate Price is a good split, as you want more answers to Geist of Saint Traft and Boros Reckoner, but you also want to hit specific creatures at the right times due to cardslike Rancor and Thundermaw Hellkite.
It's good to see the full four Sphinx's Revelations, as not playing four in your Esper deck is pretty absurd. It's your only good card! Obviously we don't play four of every card just because they are good, but it's more of a Fact or Fiction than a Cruel Ultimatum. Every time I think about going to three, I remember that these decks need to cast at least one Sphinx's Revelation just to catch up and play a real game. It's the second Sphinx's Revelation that actually kills people most of the time (unlike Cruel Ultimatum, where the first one does the trick most of the time). You have to be able to burn it for one or two, just to hit land drops. Having to hold it because you only play two is crazy talk. Some try to get around this by playing a million walkers, but Sphinx's Revelation is just a bigger game than any of the walkers, so what are you really doing?
If there is a silver lining to the general lack of Gatecrash cards in the past couple weeks, it is that it means the Pro Tour format isn't spoiled. Gatecrash is a tough nut to crack, but there are a lot of cards that will shift the balance of power. With great games and some big surprises in store, I'd check out the coverage this weekend. It should be a good time.
Quick! Before coverage spoils too much, what are your predictions for the three best performing decks? What is the big surprise deck of the tournament going to be? I'm pretty happy with my deck choice and will be talking about it Monday. See you then!
“The Innovator”
About Patrick Chapin
Patrick Chapin, "The Innovator," is a member of the Hall of Fame class of 2012. He is a four-time Pro Tour Top 8 competitor, renowned deckbuilder, author of "Next Level Magic," and the first player to Top 8 Pro Tours in three different decades.